Wednesday, March 10, 2010

I Know Ginobili is Good and Fun to Play With, But It's OK to Score When He's On The Bench

There are only 3 positives to take away from this game:

1. We won. Always a good thing.

2. Manu Ginobili. It's such a pleasure to watch him play. I experience actual joy when he is on the court. Our offense almost literally could not score without him on the floor. If he's not a Spur next year...well, I don't know what I'll do. But I'll be very unhappy.

3. Malik Hairston. Pop put him in either late in the 3rd or early in the 4th, and he never came out. One thing that I love about Pop is that he's not afraid to defy conventional wisdom, or to sacrifice a loss to chase a particular whim, cultivate something more long-term, or just prove a point. Most coaches would have taken Hairston out in the last few minutes of the game, satisfied that they had proven their point or gotten the most out of the reserve. But Pop rewarded his good play, stayed with him, and allowed him to finish out the game with the big boys.

And he should have. Outside of Ginobili, Duncan, and possibly Hill and McDyess, nobody was playing better than Hairston (and those were your closing 5). What I liked best about Hairston's game wasn't the putback dunk (though it was sweet), nor the block on Harrington (though it was timely and awesome), but rather the 20 foot jump shot he calmly stepped into and nailed at the most critical of junctures, prompting a timeout from D'Antonio and giving the Spurs the cushion they needed to finish off the game. If Hairston can develop his jump shot and continue to learn the Spurs defensive system, he'll be a solid rotation guy before you know it.

And that's all.

Looking Forward:

Off to Minnesota Friday night. This is another game that we must win.

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Monday, March 08, 2010

I'll See Your Parker and Raise You LeBron

That was a weird game. Everything just felt a little off-kilter for most of the 48. Pop played 11 players in the first quarter, including extended run for Mahinmi and Hairston. The pace was off the charts for the first half, as both teams pushed the ball like they were playing under D'Antoni circa Phoenix 2005. Both teams seemed to make little runs and grab control of the game, only to lose it the next moment. And both teams went ice cold at the same time in the 4th quarter, leading to something like 12 straight empty possessions.

Just a weird game.

In the end, we wasted a brilliant Manu performance. There's really nothing to say about it. If you watched the game, then you understand. If you didn't, then you missed a classic. He filled up the stat sheet, was in complete control of our offense, and even made some huge defensive plays (that were mostly wasted--I'm looking at you Richard Jefferson, traveling under the hoop).

George Hill was also impressive. I never realized how fast he is with the ball. That may seem like a weird thing to say, but there were a couple of fast break plays where he just kicked it into another gear and flew by everybody. It even elicited a "whoa" from the Cavs color commentator. His future is certainly bright.

Unfortunately, too many subpar performances weighed down the excellent ones. McDyess and Mason, Jr. were ice cold; Jefferson looked as lost as ever has; and Blair was a non-factor. Duncan and Bonner both had solid games. But in the end we relied too heavily on Manu, and once their defense keyed in on him, nobody stepped up. Manu tried, bless his heart; but when all 5 guys on defense are playing to stop you, you really need some help.

Let's give it to Pop, though: if you ever need a play to get a wide-open three pointer when you're down by 3 (or more) with under 15 seconds to go, he's your man. It amazes me how we always get wide open 3 point shots when everybody in the building knows that we need a 3-pointer and only a 3-pointer. If only Mason, Jr. could have hit one shot tonight.

Looking Forward:

The loss tonight marks are 61st game of the season, leaving us 21 games remaining. As far as math goes, that's about as close to 3/4 of the season as you can get. Instead of assessing the team thus far, let's look at our remaining schedule and try to predict how the team will finish.

Here is our remaining schedule.

Our next 4 games are against the Knicks, the T-Wolves, the Clippers, and the Heat. Those are all winnable games. Ideally, we'll go 4-0. Realistically, we'll lose a stupid one, going 3-1.

After that, we have Orlando, Golden State, Atlanta, and Oklahoma City. Only Golden State is at home. That is a difficult stretch of games. Ideally, we can go 3-1, getting the Golden State game and 2 of the other 3. We've had good luck against both Atlanta and Oklahoma City this season. Orlando will be the real test. Realistically, 2-2, or even 1-3.

The two after that are the Lakers and the Cavs, both at home. Murderer's row, but at least we're at the AT&T Center. To take both of those games would be a feat of greatness that I don't think this team has. Ideally, we can split; realistically, there's a good chance we lose both.

We finish out the Month of March at Boston, at New Jersey, and then home for Houston. With Boston struggling, there's a chance we could win both of those road games. But Houston has owned us the last 2 games, so I'm not optimistic for that one. Ideally, 2-1; realistically, 1-2.

April brings more pain, as we start the Month with Orlando at home and the Lakers in LA. Again, being able to split would be a dream, but there's a good chance we could lose both.

After that, we have Sacramento, Phoenix, Memphis, and Denver. I think 3-1 is a real possibility here, though 2-2 might be more realistic.

Our season ends home against Minnesota, then at Dallas on the last night of the season. Ideally, 2-0. Realistically, 1-1.

Adding all that up, in an ideal world, we finish the last stretch of games 16-5. In a more practical world (perhaps some would say cynical), we go 9-12. Splitting the difference, we're right about 13-8.

Ideal world puts us at 52-30; practical world puts us at 45-37; and split difference world puts us at 49-33.

Selfishly, I want to break 50 wins. I know it doesn't mean anything really, but the streak of 50-win seasons in the Duncan era means something to me. It speaks to the continued excellence of the franchise, and it is something to be proud of. We're in real jeopardy this season of not reaching it. We have to play markedly better over the last quarter of the season than we did over the first 3.

But despite Parker's injury, there are definite signs that we're improving and can make it to 50. Ginobili seems to be back with a vengeance. Hill is stepping up, getting better each game, and is becoming a reliable scorer for us. Duncan is Duncan. The defense is tightening up and getting more active.

We have to go 14-7 over the remainder to get to 50. Looking at the schedule, we have 7 games that we have no excuse not to win; 5 games that are probably toss ups; and 9 games that, based on this seasons results, we should probably lose. So give us the 7 gimmes, 3 or 4 of the toss-ups, and that only leaves us with 3 or 4 of the difficult ones to win.

Can we do it?

If we can't, we're certainly not a high-caliber playoff team and we probably don't deserve 50. The Spurs have built their reputation over the last decade on closing strong and riding into the playoffs just as the team is peaking. The pressure is on, and the team's identity and character will be forged in the last 21 games.

The race to 50 is on.

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Sunday, March 07, 2010

Take These Broken Wings

The reports are coming in, and it looks like Parker will miss up to 6 weeks with a fracture in the ring finger of his right hand.

If that is the case, it's almost a poetic ending to Parker's season. He was just never able to get it going, battling various ankle, foot, and hip problems all season. He played valiantly and showed bursts of his former speed and abilities, but it was fairly obvious to most observers that Parker just wasn't his usual self this season. In many ways, his season has mirrored the Spurs season. Looked like the old version, still played like the old version, but something was missing and never quite clicked.

The Spurs, of course, will move on without Parker as best they can. They're still a quite good and very capable team without Parker, and they'll undoubtedly still make the playoffs. But chances of moving beyond the first round are even smaller than they were before. And much like last year with Ginobili, it will feel like another year with Duncan has been wasted.

The real shame is that it was really starting to feel like this team was coming together and playing better. Over the last 4 games we've beaten some really good teams at home and on the road by playing smart, executing well, and being very active and energetic on the defensive end. Sounds familiar, doesn't it?

Here's wishing Parker a speedy recovery and a chance to heal all that ails him.

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Saturday, March 06, 2010

Plane Trouble After A Win Against The Hornets...Why Does That Sound So Familiar?

Another strong win for the Spurs. This felt a lot like last night's game, building a big first half lead mostly on the strength of some unusually good 3-point shooting, then fighting off every little run in the second half before pulling away for good late. I'll take these wins any day.

The real bright spots of the game for me were Matt Bonner and Richard Jefferson. Bonner kept up his hot shooting and even played some strong, pesky, and physical defense against Zach Randolph. His shooting is so important to the team, and when he's making his shots, our entire offense opens up. He has even added a reliable (if wholly uncreative) driving game to his repertoire. While he's rarely a danger to full down a tomahawk dunk, just having the second weapon available to him gives him (and our offense) that much more flexibility.

Jefferson continues his improved play of the last few weeks. Coming off the bench seems to be suiting him well. He scored well tonight, but for me his biggest improvement and biggest asset to the team is in his defense and his energy. He is starting to really play with passion and intensity and with a will on defense. He pulled down some crucial rebounds (something that was hard to come by tonight) and played some stifling man defense. It's nice to see him playing well.

I'm still concerned about our over-reliance on our bench. That's a nice way to win some regular season games, but can really hurt you come playoff time. Of course, at this point, we're just fighting to make the playoffs and to secure a decent seed, so I suppose we shouldn't worry about the playoffs until April 16th.

Tonight's win may be tempered by the injury to Tony Parker, who reportedly broke a bone in the ring finger of his right hand. There's no definitive reports yet, but if Matt Bonner is any indication, Parker could possibly miss 4-6 weeks, which would be the rest of the regular season. We'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

Looking Forward:

We play Monday night in Cleveland. After a slow start (people forget that they lost their first 2 games and every analyst in the country was losing their shit), the Cavs have clearly been the best team in the league over the last several weeks, with LeBron clearly being the best player in the league all season. This game should be a great test for us. We've won 4 straight games against quality opponents, but nothing of Cleveland's caliber. A win would be outstanding, but I'm more concerned about how well we play. If we can hang with them and play like we belong on the court with them, that will be a very good sign for us.

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Friday, March 05, 2010

David West Drinks Matt Bonner's Shake, He Drinks It Up

Another night; another victory over the New Orleans Hornets. The good news: we swept the season series and can actually beat the Hornets on a consistent basis; the bad news: there's 0.001% chance we'll see them in the playoffs. And since every other western conference team seems to own us right now, that doesn't bode too well for our playoff chances.

In a lot of ways, this game followed a similar script to last Monday's game against the Hornets. We built an early first half lead. The Hornets kept making runs at us and threatening, and we kept answering and pulling away. Despite the deficit getting down to 4 or 5 a few times in the second half, it never felt like we were in danger of losing. With a strong kick in the fourth quarter, we were able to win going away.

The real story of this game was our 3-point shooting. We shot very well (especially in the first half), going 12 for 20 from behind the line. So much of our offense is predicated on hitting the open 3-point shot. When we make it at a high percentage, our offense looks so much better, even if the execution is pretty consistent from game to game. Everything falls into place when that 3-point shot is going in. Bogans hit 4 and Hill hit 3; if we can continue to get that kind of production from our starting wings (especially Bogans), we have a good chance to win any game.

Looking Forward:

We play tomorrow night in Memphis. We had a comeback bid fall just short the last time we played in Memphis. We owe them one. Memphis has come back to earth a bit after going on a fairly prolonged hot streak.

New Orleans and Memphis are two of the teams nipping at our heels in the standing behind us; it's very important to beat them head to head. Plus, when was the last time we won 4 games in a row?

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Monday, March 01, 2010

Waiting To Derail

That might have been the least convincing 14 point win I've seen in a while.

Twice we had the Hornets on the ropes with big leads after strong surges, and twice we let them back into the game. We were up by 14 or 15 early in the second quarter and failed to score a point over about a 5 or 6 minute stretch. The Hornets got it back to 39-39, then 42-42, before we took off on another run spanning halftime, eventually ending up with a 20 point lead early in the third at 70-50. Over the remainder of the quarter, we were outscored 23-10, allowing New Orleans back in the game at 80-73.

In the fourth we were able to maintain about a 9-13 point cushion the entire quarter, eventually pulling away late for the 14 point win, despite Marcus Thornton's attempts to keep them in the game with unconscious shooting.

George Hill had a nice game. He got the scoring started early, scoring 10 of the Spurs first 15 or so points; and he finished the scoring late, hitting a couple of dagger corner 3s to put the finishing touches on the game. He was tasked with guarding Thornton for most of the 4th quarter, and did a decent job despite his gaudy scoring.

Ginobili had a pretty frenetic game, throwing the ball around to both teams. It seems like every time the ball left his hands for a pass, it was a 50/50 chance that would end up with the Spurs or the Hornets. He gave us some pretty important scoring and defense, but I was terrified every time he ran the pick and roll.

Pop is doing a great job of limiting Parker's minutes and easing him back into the games. The extra rest seems to be doing him some good, as he is showing flashes of his uninjured brilliant self. Both his drives and his jump shot are improving, and that is a sign for hope.

Looking Forward:

We have the rest of the week off and face the Hornets again on Friday in San Antonio. If we can beat them on the road in a back-to-back situation, we sure as hell better beat them at home on 3 days rest.

Good Night...and Good Luck:

The Spurs waived Michael Finley today. They did so to trim another small amount of of their luxury tax bill and to allow Finley to sign with another team and still be playoff eligible. The Spurs front office has always walked the line where professionalism and family meet with grace and humility. They treat their players with respect and honesty. Whenever possible, they try to do what's best for both parties. It was clear that Finley's minutes were quickly disappearing and that his role on the team was vanishing. By waiving him now, Finley has the chance to find minutes elsewhere and perhaps end his career with more bang and less whimper.

He certainly deserves so. Despite his role as a fan favorite scapegoat, he always conducted himself with the utmost grace and professionalism. He was a vital cog in the 2007 championship, and he is one of the few ring-chasing veterans who was actually able to achieve it while still playing a vital role on the championship team. When we lost to Dallas in 2006, my heart went out to Finley more than anybody else on the team, as he had left his heart on the floor (and endured a shot to the balls by a former teammate. Stay classy, JET).

When we won in 2007, it was obvious that all the veterans on the team were delighted to be able to get Finley his ring. Despite his declining abilities over the last few years, he could always be counted on to knock down a clutch 3-pointer.

Here's hoping that Finley gets a fitting end to his wonderful career.

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Sunday, February 28, 2010

Sometimes It's Better To Be Lucky Than Good

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

The cast of characters may change, but most of the principals are still there. Duncan, Ginobili, Parker, Nash, Stoudemire. The teams may be diametrically opposed philosophically, but they have slowly shifted towards each other over the last few years. The Spurs, once the standard bearer for defense, has become a more effective offensive team at the expense of their once dominant defense. The Suns, once the inventors of a new style of offense and the evolution of the game, have become a more traditional team, even playing active and scrappy defense.

And whenever the teams play, it seems to produce a memorable game.

This game was very enjoyable and fun to watch, and certainly had me reminiscing about May battles of old. But neither team seemed to play terribly efficiently at either end of the court, and save for a pair of odd and boneheaded plays by the Suns, the Spurs could have easily lost this game.

The fist odd play was Richardson's missed dunk. There's not much to analyze there; sometimes players miss dunks. This missed dunk just happened to be at the most inopportune of times. The second odd play was Nash's pass as time expired. Nash says he lost his balance and couldn't take the shot. People are rightfully criticizing Frye for moving inside the 3-point line when a 3 was the only thing that would have helped. But Nash passed the ball right to him; if Frye hadn't moved in, where would the pass have gone? It looks like Nash may have been passing to another Suns player (I think Richardson) who was standing just past Frye beyond the 3 point line, and Frye walked into the passing lane. Either way, it doesn't matter; there was no way the shot was getting up in time. Nash had to shoot that ball, and he didn't. That's not like Nash at all, whose intelligence is beyond reproach. We got lucky on two counts, and we won the game. As Duncan said in the post-game interview, it's about time some of the breaks started going our way.

The great thing about this game as a Spurs' fan was the great play we got from basically our entire rotation. Duncan had his usual excellent night, and Ginobili played the role of closer extraordinaire. Parker had a great game, though in limited minutes, most likely because of his recent injuries. But when he was in, he seemed to have some zip back in his legs. Hill and Blair both played well in their roles.

But the two best sights were from Jefferson and McDyess. Jefferson arguably had his best game as a Spur. He was aggressive and attacking the basket early and often, which led to defensive breakdowns, lay-ups, or fouls. Later in the game, he used his early aggression to set up his jump shot, which he was hitting. He even played aggressive D, getting an important block on Stoudemire. If things can start clicking for him, we can be a great team.

McDyess had a scary moment when he went down in a heap after landing on his left leg awkwardly. As the announcers pointed out, his left knee is the knee that had given him so much trouble early in his career. A serious injury to his left knee could legitimately end his career. Setting aside the obvious personal repercussions of that happening to such a good, humble, and hardworking person, that could really screw up the Spurs' big man rotation, as it seems to be pared down to just Duncan, McDyess, and Blair, with Bonner getting limited spot minutes. With the trade of Ratliff, we basically cashed in our big man insurance policy.

So it was great to see McDyess back on the court early in the fourth. It was even better to see him stick several critical jump shots down the stretch of the game. That 15-18 foot jump shot has become his offensive calling card over the last 5 years, and it does so much for our offense when it's working. Just like with Jefferson, his full integration into the team can make us much better than we are right now.

No matter the circumstance or the situation, it always feels good to beat the Suns.

Looking Forward:

As with all nice Spurs win of the last few months, all hopes and expectations should be severely tempered. Until the team can prove their ability on a game-to-game basis, all of us should be skeptical.

Our next two games are both against the New Orleans Hornets. We play them in New Orleans Monday night, then back in San Antonio on Friday night, with no games scheduled in between. The Hornets are without Chris Paul, but have really started playing some good basketball of late. And like all games in the Western Conference this time of year, every win and loss is critical.

It's about time we started stringing some wins together.

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Friday, February 26, 2010

I'll Take That As A "No"

And a resounding one at that.

*Sigh*

3 of our starters didn't score a single point. 3 or theirs each had 30 or more points. I don't need a stat expert to figure that one out.

At least Malik Hairston played well. I like Malik and root for him, but he has always seemed a little lost on the court. Tonight, however, he played with more confidence and understanding of the game and the Spurs' system than he ever has before. If he continues to play like that, I'd like to see him get more minutes. Another athletic wing who can slash, defend, and play with energy can never be a bad thing. Plus, if this season is as hopeless as it seems now, it'd be good to start getting next year's rotation players minutes now.

Looking Forward:

We play Phoenix on Sunday. On National TV. In the early afternoon. Never a good sign for this team.

Are there any playoff-caliber Western Conference teams left that don't own us?

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Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Mine Eyes Hath Seen The Glory

Sometimes a block is just a block.

Sometimes a block is the turning point of a game.

But can a block be the turning point of an entire season?



Manu fucking Ginobili. Welcome home, my friend.

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Sunday, February 21, 2010

I Play The Numbers Game To Find A Way To Say That Life Has Just Begun

In the first 5 minutes of the game against the Detroit Pistons, the Pistons outscored the Spurs by 10, getting up 14-4 early. In the first 5 minutes of the 3rd quarter the Pistons outscored us by 4 points. In 10 minutes they outplayed us by 14 points; in the remaining 38 (not including OT), we outscored them by 14. We were better, for longer, but had two smaller periods of inefficiency and mediocrity.

When were these two periods? The two times that our starting lineup was on the floor. I am completely befuddled by Pop's starting lineups these last 3 games. I thought starting Bonner and Bogans for McDyess and Jefferson was crazy, but Pop went one crazier this game, trotting out a starting lineup of Duncan, Jefferson, Bogans, Mason, Jr., and Hill.

To me there are two just absurd things about this lineup. The first is pretty obvious; there's only one big. I understand small ball as a tactical device for stretches of games. But as a starting lineup? I'm not buying it. As has been demonstrated, our best lineup--by an overwhelming margin--are when we have either McDyess or Blair teamed up with Duncan. With the absence of Parker we needed to move some things around. But those moving pieces seemed to be in the backcourt, not the frontcourt.

The second absurd thing about this lineup is just the sheer quality--or lack thereof--of it. For fun, let's rank our players in order of "goodness". I think we can come to some sort of general consesus with minor quibbles:

1. Tim Duncan
2. Manu Ginobili
3. Tony Parker
4. George Hill
5. Antonio McDyess
6. DeJuan Blair
7. Richard Jefferson
8. Roger Mason, Jr.
9. Keith Bogans
10. Matt Bonner

That's the entire list of players who see meaningful minutes. We can bicker about who's really #2, Tony or Manu; we can argue about the more productive big, McDyess or Blair; and we can argue about the last 4 and what order they should be in, though I think we would all agree that those are our 4 least effective players so far this season.

So let's look at tonight's starting lineup. It included #1, #4, #7, #8, and #9. Granted, #3 was gone. But essentially we started 3 of our 4 worst players.

Do you think Detroit started 3 of their 4 worst players? No. So then we put one of our worst possible lineups against one of their best. And we got outscored by 14 points in a 10 minute stretch and were never able to make it up.

The starting lineup I would like to see is #1, #3, #4, #5, and #7, with #2 and #6 anchoring our bench. That's a pretty good lineup, and gives us a fighting chance at the start of each half, unlike now.

What truly puzzles me is McDyess's sudden demotion. He has been playing well, as he demonstrated tonight. He's a very effective rebounder (moreso than Blair, in my opinion, since McDyess can rebound well on both ends of the floor), a great spot-up shooter, a pesky defender, and a competitor. He wants to win. I'll gladly go to battle with players like that. Pop must be seeing something that the distanced observer isn't seeing; but to these eyes, he deserves more minutes.

I'm sure there's more we could discuss about the game. But really, what's the point?

Looking Forward:

The rodeo road trip is over. At 4-4, I would call it a failure. We had a promising win in Denver, and then followed it up with 3 terrible games, one of which we were lucky to win. We're no further along then we were before the trip; and we may have even regressed.

Basically, we went .500 on the trip, and that sums this team up just about right.

We play Oklahoma City back at home on Wednesday. Unlike us, they are playing great basketball lately. Could get ugly.

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